How Will Penn State Adjust to Life Without Frazier?
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How Will Penn State Adjust to Life Without Frazier?

On Sunday, November 18th, the Penn State Nittany Lions suffered a major loss. It was not the 85-60 drubbing that they received at the hands of the Akron Zips; that was very minor in relation to the long-term fissure that has been created in the Lions’ lineup. What I am referring to, of course, is the ruptured Achilles suffered by Tim Frazier, who just happened to be Penn State’s far and away best player as well as their senior point guard. According to Head Coach
Pat Chambers, recovering from an injury such as this will likely keep Frazier out 6-12 months. While the NCAA has a history of granting medical redshirts to players injured this early into the season (and will more than likely allow Frazier to play again next season), this does Penn State no good in the present. Coach Chambers insisted in a later press conference that Frazier’s injury would be a good opportunity for other players to step up and fill the void. Unfortunately, this is going to be much easier said than done, and the Lions will likely have an even rockier season than initially expected.

I’m not saying that Penn State can’t make Frazier’s injury a point to rally around and play Big Ten teams very competitively, but at the moment it does not seem likely. There is so much more to this injury situation than meets the eye. On the surface, PSU just lost its starting point guard. But when a team loses 19 points, 6 assists, and 5 rebounds per game, that type of statistical production is not easily duplicated. With this loss, there are three main concerns I have with this group going forward:

Scoring Efficiency

With the advent of advanced metrics used to look at sports in a different scope, much emphasis has been placed on teams performing efficiently. This is especially important if one wants to succeed in the Big Ten (the most efficient offensive conference in the country last year). Probably the biggest and simplest factor in measuring offensive efficiency involves the team’s Field Goal Percentage (what percent of shots are made). I mention this because the departure of Tim Frazier from Penn State’s arsenal will undoubtedly have an />effect on the FG% of the entire team, and probably the most intense dip will be seen by wings D.J. Newbill and Jermaine Marshall. What made Frazier such a vital player last year was that he was able to shoulder a huge portion of the offense and yet maintain a very respectable 41.9 FG%. This comes from Frazier’s incredible knack for converting shots in traffic and his ability to get easy buckets by zipping past his defender. Newbill and Marshall, however, are not nearly as fleet of foot compared to Frazier. This means that instead of getting clean 3 point looks off of Frazier’s penetration, they will be forced to create opportunities for themselves off the dribble and will have to increase their amount of tough shot attempts. In basketball, an increase in usage rate generally brings about a dip in efficiency (especially for role players like D.J. and Jermaine). Take for example Jermaine Marshall’s numbers from last year in comparison with how he is doing this season. His shot attempts per game have gone from 9.5 to 12, and accordingly, his FG% has plummeted from 39% to 32%. The same trend is apparent with D.J. Newbill as well. Yes, the sample size is small this early on, but to be clear: I do expect the absence of #23 to have a profoundly negative impact on the success of this wing tandem.<br /> <br /> <strong>Defense</strong><br /> <br /> Because of his exceptional creativity and talent with the basketball, Tim Frazier gets a lot of recognition for the offensive prowess he displays; and rightfully so. But what often goes unnoticed and unappreciated by even the more astute college basketball fan is Frazier’s defense. In 2011-12, Frazier was named a first team All-Big Ten defender by the media. Not only did Frazier average 2.4 steals per game (a career best for him) last season, but he was a very steady presence at the top of Chamber’s shell-like defensive scheme (designed to stunt dribble penetration and keep the ball on the perimeter). The problem with that defense is that it was so dependent on Frazier’s quickness and discipline at the top of the key to keep the ball handler in front of him. Now with Frazier gone, likely replacement Nick Colella will have his hands full trying to spearhead the defense. If he can not discourage penetration, help defense (another principle of the shell defense) will be needed, but in giving help the defense is thrown out of whack and forced to rotate quickly and precisely. Any good offensive team should be able to move the ball effectively and find good shots against the Nittany Lions if this becomes the case. Furthermore, with everyone needing to play extended minutes in the absence of Tim, the players will be expend more energy and therefore not be able to play as hard on the defensive end as they would like to. No longer will we be seeing Chamber’s scrappy bunch outhustling opponents to the floor and winning the 50/50 balls to end opponent’s possessions and shift momentum in close games.<br /> <br /> <strong>Half Court Offense</strong><br /> <br /> This section should be pretty straightforward; there are no complex formulas or schemes necessary to help you understand Tim Frazier’s importance to Penn State’s offense in the half court. In fact, I can pretty much sum it up like this: last year Tim Frazier led the team in points, assists, and rebounds (both per game and total). There are probably only a hand full of players in the entire country who accomplished that last year. Like I said, I could stop there….but I won’t. Tim Frazier not only did this while scoring efficiently, but he also took care of the ball better than just about anybody in the Big Ten. After having the luxury of playing alongside Talor Battle for 2 years, Frazier’s Turnover percentage actually dropped from the high twenties to 18.1% last year. That’s despite him becoming the focal point of every teams scouting report night in and night out and having to carry his subpar supporting cast through the duration of a Big Ten season. Without him creating off of ball screens and knifing into the lane to draw the defense’s attention only to find the open man, this year’s offense could be pretty choppy and stagnant. Chambers will have to rely on his players’ willingness to move the ball extremely well and battle on the offensive glass to score tough points, but the prospects remain gloomy.<br /> <br /> <a href= width=More than likely Frazier will be fully healed and ready to at least suit up for the Lions at the beginning of the 2013-14 season. And with no other seniors in the starting lineup, next year may bring quite a bit of promise for the Lions, depending on how some of them continue to develop throughout this year. Unfortunately, for the fans focused in on the short term as well as advocates of the Mayan calendar, this season looks to be nothing more than another rebuilding year for Pat Chambers.
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